Or Machiavelli, how should a leader sensibly and reasonably respond to an environment where events are determined in part by fortune?

Marks are earned for:
Understanding: of the basic concepts and ability to synthesize them an interesting argument,
Style: appropriate to an academic essay; not personal, clear, well paragraphed,
Structure: shows thought and analysis, with introduction and conclusion, has a logical flow of points, makes a compelling argument,
Accuracy: of word use, grammar, syntax, spelling and punctuation, referencing.