Ousing Market Post and Pre recession. Cyclical Behavior
Attached is an Excel file with quarterly data on five economic time series: real gdp, average real houseprices, the number of months supply of houses on the market, housing starts, and a Dummy variablewhich takes on the value of 1 during recessions and 0 otherwise. The data begin in the middle of 1982 and go until the end of 2010. GDP, house prices, and starts are in logs, so that the change actually represents the *percentage* change in the original series.
The goal is to characterize the cyclical behavior of the housing market during the most recent four recession and recovery periods. You might start by making four plots, each with the recession dummy along with one of the four other series. (I would probably plot the dummies with bars, and the other series with lines, but that is up to you. Choose scales that will make the patterns show clearly). This will allow you to see the behavior of each of the series in recessions and in expansions.
How cyclical are housing prices? What about months supply? Housing Starts? What happens to each of these in recession and in expansion? Are they all In sync”, or does one series lead or lag behind the others? What kind of story would you tell to explain the cyclical behavior of the housing variables?
Do any of the recession periods represent a counterexample to the overall empirical regularities you describe?
The recent recession is said to have been especially related to the housing market. How different is it than previous recessions, with regard to the variables shown here?
Make any other observations or comments you deem noteworthy. Try to write it up nicely.