Ppraise the proposition that the bank failures and crisis of 2007-8 could have been foreseen from academic work published prior to 2004.

Target Length 2000-2500 words Plagiarism is the worst form of academic practice and you are required to aim at good practice by appropriate citations to enable the reader to determine the source and/or reasons for any statement you make. Consult a Federal Reserve or Bank of England working Paper to see how it should be done. You should include a bibliography including all items referred to and no others. If you have read something and not cited it ask yourself  why? have you omitted a citation or a relevant point? General I hope the thrust of this assignment is self-evident. A cursory reading of, for example Logan ( 2001) ; below seems to suggests that the analysis of the banking crises of the 1990s had led economists to develop a series of tools which would have enabled them to predict the 2007-8 crisis. If this were true the implications are broad but I want you to examine only this proposition  ie that they had developed appropriate tools which were apparently ignored in 2007-8 Queries re attribution There are many guides to citation available so I am not going to try to replicate them. Points raised by your predecessors are dealt with here only where they raise broader issues or to indicate the philosophy and principles underlying the requirement. The over-riding purpose is to enable me to find something if your essays intrigues me or raises doubts in my mind. If in doubt give a source; it is never wrong to over-attribute. Quotations must be properly indicated and referenced. Paraphrasing does not remove the need for attribution. Indeed attribution gives you the chance to demonstrate hard work and understanding. If you have found Smith s ideas, worked at them, absorbed them and put them into context you deserve and will get credit Publications should be treated in the same way whatever the language; you can cite publications in any language. However a translation of the title and source sometimes proves useful Clarification (frequently asked questions) Target Length There is no explicit penalty for excessive length because this would be unfair given differences in writing styles especially when English is not the first language of some students. The purpose is to protect students and to emphasise quality and focus rather than quantity. Lay-out, format etc. There are no requirements concerning spacing, font etc. Similarly there are no rewards or penalties for binding, use of colour printers etc. An essay or report format is acceptable but most students find that the traditional essay style works best. For example use of bullet points often means that ideas are not developed. Scope You may restrict the scope of your answer to a single country or not as you choose. Date You will need to refer to literature written after 2004 to answer the question. Econometrics I do not require you to perform an econometric study nor even to see how well equations estimated in say 2002 would have predicted. I want an appraisal of whether earlier work contained something wrongly ignored. Tables, Diagrams etc You need to be aware that tables etc need to be referred to in the text. Downloading such material from the internet is straightforward but marks are given for how well it is used not for mere compilation. Introduction, Conclusion etc There is no need for a formal conclusion unless you think it adds something to your answer Academic This can be treated broadly. It includes any article in an academic journal, any book by or article an academic, the output of the research department of a central bank or regulatory agency, discussion and working papers and similar material appearing on the internet. What is desirable? You need to think about the question) and then see what evidence you can assemble. You then need to use this material to produce a coherent integrated answer. The desiderata in your answer are: Effort, knowledge understanding analysis and independent work. The first three are essential for a good pass, the fourth for a merit and the last for a distinction. Analysis A dictionary would define analysis as breaking something down in order to understand it better Independence This means independence of lectures briefings etc in other words something I was not expecting How can I do badly? You can get a low mark by being irrelevant or overly descriptive. I do not want a history of failure nor does the question require you to consider the implications for regulation. Knowledge The mark for these criteria includes an assessment of content and effort. Knowledge includes conceptual as well as factual knowledge Presentation This does not refer to lie-out, appearance etc but to integration and use of citations. Integration means that the various sections are related, facts related to analysis. Citations must be used properly; Harvard system is probably best although Chicago and footnoting are acceptable .Reasons must be given wherever possible. Focus This combines relevance and completeness. You should include everything relevant and nothing else
any academic work published prior to 2004